From Chapter 4:"Inferences, What Follows?" Read Sherlock Holmes "The Adventure of the Speckled Band," the Arthur Cannon Doyle text.
Answer the following:
- How does Holmes draw inferences from evidence?
- How does he draw inferences from facts?
- How, if at all, does he make false inferences?
Each of these questions, is related to sections in Chapter 4. Students are expected to make connections between Mayfield's text and the Doyle short story.
Thanks,
Ms. Wanzo
54 comments:
Homles draws inferences by evidence from obesevring the woman's clothing, belongings and body language. He draws inferences from facts by his own knowkedge and what he sees.He knows the dog-cart is the cart that gets mud thrown upon it, with that knowledge,he noticed mud that was obvious on the lady's clothing and the second half of a return ticket in the palm of the womans left glove, which was fact. Holmes made a false inference when he interpreted the lady shivering as a sign of being cold, he learned from conversation with her she was actually in fear.
Holmes draws inferences from evidence by making assumptions based on what he sees front of him. For example, Holmes states "...and I shall order you a cup of coffee, for I observe that you are shivering." (p.111). He is inferring that Mrs. Hudson is cold, which is a false inference given that Mrs. Hudson states that she shivers due to fear. This shows that inferences can go wrong as Mayfield suggested. Holmes draws inference on fact when he said that Mrs. Husdon travelled by train in the a.m. Holmes uses evidence of a second half of a train ticket in her glove and the left arm of her jacket spatted with fresh mud. This time Holmes was right. This shows the connection with Mayfields text in that inferences can go right and wrong.
Holmes draw inferences by evidence from what he saw,we get this from where he states that,"You have come in by train this morning,I see".He uses ticket as his supporting tool, evidence.
He draw inference from facts where he state that,"There is no mystery,"The left arm of your jacket is spatted with mud.........
There is no vehicle save a dog - cart which throws up mud in that way".He interprete it as real and true because its obvious.
He made false inference where he assumed that the woman was shivering because of cold but it was due to fear.
Holmes assumes the obvious inference which is fictional by stating she may be cold which is the reason the fire is lit, which turns out she is in fear. His inferences based on facts are when he really takes notice of her and says "she came in by train" and supports his inference with the ticket in her right palm, and also her method of travel based on the mud on her clothing, and how it can only be obtained by sitting on the left side of the driver of the dog-cart.
Sherlock Holmes drew inference from evidence by noticing evidence such as mud spot that was spattered on the left arm of woman's jacket which suggested that she might have rode on dog-cart on heavy road to get to the train station.
He said "You have come in by train this morning, I see". By saying this he drew inference from fact based on the evidence he had in front of him which was the return ticket in woman's hand.
He made false inference when he assumed the woman was shivering because of cold and offered to get a cup of hot coffee for her.
Holmes draws inferences from evidence by interpreting the right and wrong facts. He draws inference from facts by gathering reasons from his own factual knowledge or evidence. In the reader, Holmes assume that the woman was cold because she was shivering, and told her to step a little closer to the fire to get warm while he order her a cup of hot coffee. But she wasn't shivering because it was cold, it was fear and terror.This proves Mayfeild's points of how inferences can create either facts or confusion.
Holmes draws his inferences by observing the woman's facial features and her tangible items. He is able to come to he conclusion by using knowledge and personal experience, making an educated guess. Holmes saw that the woman had mud spattered across her jacket and instantly connected that with a dog-cart, suggesting his familiarity with that form of transportation. Also, he saw the ticket stub in her hand which made him believe she toke the train. This gave him "the certaint[y] to move forward" with his inferences, each connecting with the previous inference made. In the beginning of the passage, Holmes made a false inference when he thought the woman was shivering because she was cold. He didn't use this to make other inference about the situation, being open minded that he was wrong.
Holmes draw many inferences by means of evidence. He correctly observes that she came by train this morning and took a dog-cart in a muddy area to his residence. He uses clues from her clothing and the ticket stub in her gloved hand.
He looks at many facts as well when making his observation. He knows how dog-carts operat and he knows the train schedules and operation.
Even the great Sherlock Holmes draws a false inference when he mistakes her shivering because she is cold, when she is actually terrified of her present life conditions.
Holmes draws his inferences based on evidence and careful observations. From the start he observed that the women had lit the fire and was shivering so he concluded that she must be cold. However, he was wrong because she wasn't shivering due to being cold, but it was actually fear. He also noticed the train ticket in the woman's hand to suggest that she was on a train. Holmes draws another inference from facts when he stated that the women was riding in a dog cart by observing that her left arm was spattered with mud. He also stated that she had to be riding a dog cart because it was the only vehicle that "throws up mud in that way". Perhaps Holmes was able to make this inference based on his own personal experience with a dog cart to have known the intricate details about it.
Mayfield describes it as
"asking questions, gathering facts, making inferences from them" In this case Holmes was able to make inferences about the woman with the facts he observed. He observed that the woman had a second half of a return ticket from the train in her left hand which suggested that she was on a train. From personal experiences and evidence, the investigative tandem of Holmes and Watson was able to make their next inference. The evidence on the woman's jacket shows that the mud marks were completely fresh. In addition, with the way the mud were spattered, they were able to connect her with a dog cart and conclude that she was sitting on the left hand side of the driver. On the other hand, during Holmes' investigation, he made some faulty inferences. Mayfield describes it as "The greatest difficulties occur when inferences are confused with facts or acted upon as though they were facts." Holmes made a faulty assumption that the woman was cold because she was shivering and made a fire. However, knowing that he made a faulty assumption, he did not "build one faulty inference on top of another"
In text, Mayfield says that "we solve problems by asking questions, gathering facts and making inferences from them." "Each inference directs us toward our objective."
Holmes draw inferences by evidence from observing. He saw the woman and draw the inference that she left early this morning because there was a ticket left in her glove. He also draw inferences from facts. Holmes observed that woman was cold because she is shivering. He said woman reached station by dog-cart because her jacket is spattered with mud in no less than seven places.
He made false inferences about why woman was shivering. He said woman was cold but actually she was fear.
In Doyle short story, we can see Holmes draws inferences from evidence by his observations and conversation. He infers that Mrs. Hudson is cold because he observed that she is shivering. This seems like what Mayfield says. “We solve problems by asking questions, gathering facts, making inferences from them…” Even though this observation gives him fault inferences, and Holmes realizes his wrong inferences that Mrs. Hudson shivered due to her fear instead of feeling cold after the conversation with her. In addition, Holmes draws inferences from facts. He can tell that Mrs. Hudson took the early train from her observation that a second half of a return ticket from the train is in her left hand; he can tell that she had to be riding in a dog-cart according to the fact that her left arm is spattered with mud. As Mayfield says, “…and then letting these inferences suggest strategies for finding new facts, which in turn lead to new inferences.”
Holmes draw inferences from evidence by observing the woman's clothing and from his expression, and gathering the facts from his observation. Throughout his observation, he makes some judgments about the woman, such as how she feels.However, not every evidence he gets can approve his right judgment about the woman. Once he thinks that the woman feels cold, and he orders her a cup of coffee, however, the woman is feeling fear inside her heart.
Sherlock Holmes draws inference from evidence by making assumptions on how the woman presented herself. Not only making an assumption on how she presented herself but he also made an assumption on details that the woman brought with herself. He draws inferences from facts with things that are very obvious to make the situation seem correct. He makes false inferences by assuming that things that are obvious are facts. Even though the woman is shivering he wasn't correct by assuming she was cold, she was petrified. This connects to chapter four because inferences can either lead up to creating facts or it can lead up to confusion
Holmes drew inferences from evidence by watching what were in front of him. By seeing the woman shivering, he concluded that she was cold. By observing "the second half of a return ticket," he could tell that the lady had come in by train that morning.
He drew inferences from facts by using his experience or observation. When he saw that "the left arm" of the woman's jacket "is spattered with mud in no less than seven places," he said that "there is no vehicle save a dog-cart which throws up mud in that way, and then only when you(the lady) sit on the left-hand side of the driver."
However, he made a false inference when he thought the woman was shivering because of the cold weather. He did not "carefully examined" the evidence. "Instead, only final interpretations" were offered. When he reviewed the evidence, he noticed that the woman "was indeed in a pitiable state of agitation...with restless frightened eyes." He had rushed to hasty conclusion.
According to Mayfield, “When we infer, we imagine, reason, guess, surmise…and conclude” (106). Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s character, Sherlock Holmes’ career is built upon a foundation of inferences, some of which are drawn from evidence. Holmes surmised the women was cold after observing that she was shivering, which in turn, prompted him to suggest that she warm herself by the fire. He then had “a cup of hot coffee” made for the woman ( qtd. in Mayfield 111). Holmes drew these “inferences from evidence” (106).
First of all, facts “can be objectively verified…through the testimony of witnesses, through observations…” (Mayfield 78). Holmes accomplished all of this while he interviewed the woman, noting specific facts such as: “her expression was weary and haggard,” and “…second half of a return ticket in the palm of [her] left glove”(112). From these facts, Holmes inferred that the woman “had a good drive in a dog-cart. along heavy roads, before [reaching] the station” (112). Additionally, Holmes surmised that she traveled by a dog-cart because of the numerous patches of mud on her coat, indicative of this travel mode. Finally, his inferences were corroborated when the woman confirmed the facts.
Holmes made some false inferences when he incorrectly assumed the woman was cold based on her shivering, when in fact, it was fear that made her shiver.
Racquel to Anna:
Both of us observed the same false inference when Holmes incorrectly assumed the woman was shivering because she was cold. Great connections between the text and the Holmes excerpt.
Hello Fan Wu,
From your report,It's amazing how we came up with the same conclusion.We observed how Holmes drew inferences from evidence from the return ticket,then he drew inferences from facts that the lady was spattered with mud and finally where he drew false inference when he interpreted that the lady was shivering because of cold but it was because of fear.I enjoyed reading the text.
As soon as I read that she was shivering, I too assumed that she was shivering, like Holmes, but as I read on, Holmes and I both were wrong.
Holmes drew inferences from evidence by looking at what he saw before his eyes. He noticed quickly that Mrs. Watson was shivering, and inferred that she was cold. He also drew inferences from facts based on his personal experiences and knowledge. The evidence included Mrs. Watson shivering, the ticket stub, and the mud on the jacket. The facts Holmes remembered was that only a dog-cart can create mud on the jacket the way it was, by also sitting left to the driver. Holmes made a false inference when he assumed Mrs. Watson was cold, but when she was actually in fear and terror. This proves what Mayfield suggested, which she said that "inferences can go right and wrong."
There seems to be obvious inferences made by Sherlock Holmes that most of us agree on. I never really looked at inferences until now and have more clarity with them. I have used inferences (evidence and factual) all my life and never knew what they were. Moving forward, I hope to catch myself before inferring. Have you inferred recently?
Holmes draw inferences from evidence what he observed. For example, when he saw the second half of a return ticket, he said she came in by train. In his inference, he uses the second half of the return ticket as his evidence. In terms of facts, Holmes draw inferences from facts from the spatter on the woman's left arm of the jacket, and the fact that the woman sat on the left-hand side of the driver is true.
However, he made a false inference at the beginning which is he though the woman who was shivering was cold. But the truth is she was fear.
The connection between Mayfield's text and the Doyle short story are inferences and facts are different and inferences can be right and wrong but facts can not.
Hello Jane,
I agree with your point which is Holmes uses the second half ticket as the supporting tool for evidence. Also, I agree with your point of Holmes draw inferences from facts because it's true base on his observing and interpretation.
According to Mayfield, “When we infer, we imagine, reason, guess, surmise…and conclude” (106). Sherlock Holmes Infers correctly and incorrectly. Holmes displayes "Distinguishing inferences from facts" and " Can go wrong and right". He infers that the woman is cold because she is shivering, which was not close at all. He assumed this to be his truth because he may have seen the situation before. Also he Assumed that she left early morning, which was correct but again he infered it. Holmes infers from observation, although some observation may be true is can stear him wrong.
To my surprise he was right about her leaving early in the morning but even the great Sherlock Holmes can be wrong.
To Raquel from Alisha:
Your response was well written. I love how you show all the evidence from the book. The difference between ours is i just starte mines. You are right holmes did incorrectly infer about the woman shivering.
According to the text from Doyle, Sherlock Holmes draws inferences by noticing Mrs. Hudson’s physical characteristics. For instance, he saw Mrs. Hudson was shivering so he made an assumption that she felt cold. However, Mr. Holmes made a false inference. After his quick and detailed observation, he could see from her frightened eyes and grey face, those revealed the facts that she was tired and fearful. Associated with his further observation of a return ticket she was holding in her left glove and the fresh mud on her left arm of the jacket she was wearing, Mr. Holmes afterward made use of the facts to think that she left home early and sat on the left-hand side of the driver seat in a dog-cart. This story made a tight connection with Mayfield’s text because Mayfield says “As we make inferences, we have to keep checking them against our facts; otherwise we can build one faulty inference on top of another” (110).
Hi San Ming,
When I read the text “…I shall order you a cup of hot coffee, for I observe that you are shivering.” I also assumed that she was shivering because she felt cold, which is the fault inference as Holmes. I agree Mayfield’s opinion, too. “…we can build one faulty inference on top of another” if we don’t “keep checking against our facts” as “we can build a wobbly learning tower of inferences on the foundation of one mistaken one”.
Pei Liang
I agree with your point of view. Mr. Holmes drew the inferences based on his knowledge, his strong imagination and observation. Even though he made false assumption at the beginning, but he could find out the right inference by gathering the facts. so I agree with Mayfield that inferences can go either right or wrong.
Hello Anna,
I've also encounter using inferences most of my life. After reading the story "The Adventure of the Speckled Band" by Sherlock Holmes, the reader gave me a clear understanding of how inferences can affect peoples thinking. My recent inference was when a young boy was walking towards me really fast. I automatically thought that the young boy was going to attack me, but I was wrong. The young boy just wanted to catch the bus. That is why the boy walked fast.
In this short excerpt, Sherlock Holmes made three inferences about the visiting lady, but not all of them were correct. When Holmes first observed Mrs. Hudson was shivering, he thought she "had the good sense to light the fire", and also he should order her a cup of hot coffee. Later he learned that the lady was not cold but terror-stricken through their conversation. This inference was wrong, and in Mayfield's text he said people "can build one faulty inference on top of another".
Through his observation in the detail, Holmes made the second inference that Mrs. Hudson came in by train this morning by seeing the second half return ticket in her hand.
Through his knowledge, Holmes made the third inference about the lady that she had a drive in a dog-cart by noticing the fresh mud spattered on the left arm of her jacket.
Two of his inferences were correct because they were based on the evidence he noticed and his knowledge. In Mayfield's text, he points out the importance of identifying the facts by stating details, and states that "inferences are essential mental operations in the search for knowledge", which can connect with Sherlock Holmes's skillful inference.
The behavior of inferring, according to Marlys Mayfield, is defined as to "bring in our imaginations to fill in for missing facts." (106) Sherlock Holmes from the story "The Adventure of the Speckled Band" was portrayed as being competent in efficiently using his inference to evaluate surrounding and make corresponding judgments. Holmes realized the madam was shivering, and unconsciously felt she was cold – that was when “the fire” (111) and “a cup of hot coffee” (111) were introduced. Additionally, his later observation on “the second half of a return ticket” (112) induced his thought that the madam arrived here by train. Holmes drew these inferences from evidence that referred to his common sense, which implied that such evidence might not be carefully examined.
Comparing to evidence, facts are more creditable in developing inferences, because they require series of verification upon an extensive base of knowledge or actual experiences. When Holmes explained his inference to the madam about her ride on dog-cart along the heavy road before reaching the station, he indicated as “the left arm of your jacket is spattered with mud in no less than seven places.” (112) This inference, rather than referring to his common sense as what evidence did, was drawn from actual facts – Holmes’s knowledge and probable experience in such circumstance when taking dog-cart rides.
Since drawing inferences from evidence is to refer to common sense, it lacks of careful examination, thus become possible to be erroneous. Holmes’ initial judgment on the madam is precisely one instance of false inference. The shiver of the madam’s was actually not caused by the cold weather as what Holmes originally thought; it was rather ascribed to the fear that she experienced. Holmes did not analyze the cause of her shiver, because shivers were almost always related coldness, even though this case is quite special. In other words, Holmes had “rushed to hasty conclusions” without focusing on every possible detail (109).
Holmes draws inferences from the evidence by using what he sees and using his experience and knowledge to help him make his inferences. Mayfield says that when making inferences, we can sometimes make mistakes. Holmes makes his inferences after by looking at the presented facts first. In the reading, Holmes makes a mistake when he makes his first inference that the lady was shivering because she was cold, when in fact, she was actually shivering from fear. This shows that everybody, even people as great as Sherlock Holes, makes wrong inferences. However, although his first inference was wrong, after taking "one of his quick, all-comprehensive looks," he was able to make correct inferences. Noting the return ticket that the woman held, which was a fact, he made the inference that the ticket had belonged to her and that she had come by train earlier. Another fact that he noticed was the fresh mud on her arm, so he made another inference that she rode on a dog-cart because he knew from his experience or knowledge that the mud marks on her arm were the same sort of mud marks that one would sustain while riding a the left side of a dog-cart.
Hey San Ming, I like how you used Mayfield's quote that "[t]he greatest difficulties occur when inferences are confused with facts or acted upon as though they were facts." I think that Holmes made his incorrect infernce because he assumed that it was a fact that all people who shiver are cold, and forgot that there were other possibilities as to why they shiver. After all, when we think of people shivering, the majority of cases will be because people are cold, which makes us create tendencies in the way that we make inferences. In fact, from our expeariences, we have all probably shivered more times from the cold than we have out of fear. We have to remember that when making inferences, we cannot confuse facts with our opinions, experinces, or our tendencies in reasoning.
I think that inference is a very efficient strategy to approach truth, because it may stimulate innovative hypothesis. Even though I acknowledge that it has a chance to be inaccurate, I do not intend to deny or discourage individuals from using it. I rather propose them to review and verify their respective inference after presenting it. Overall, I truly agree with you and your indication about inference, especially when you mention that inference can be either right or wrong and facts are always right.
In Mayfield’s text, it says that “we make inferences to help us fill in for missing facts and in order to make sense of the facts we have.” This means that to find missing facts based on inferences. On the other hand, inferences also based on facts that are in front of us. However, inferences can go with wrong even if we have facts in front of us. As the Doyle short story states that Holmes makes a faulty inferences which is inferring Mrs. Hudson is cold. Holmes draws this false inferences since he see Mrs. Hudson is shivering, but it is due to her fear. Usually, one fact or evidence is not enough to make a correct inference. As Mayfield says we need to ask questions and gathering facts in order to correct inferences. For example, Holmes infer that Mrs. Hudson came in by train and had a good drive in a dog-cart based on evidences and facts he saw. He observes the half of ticket and the left arm of her jacket is spattered with mud, by collecting these evidences and facts, he comes out with correct inferences.
Yes, Holmes made the first faulty inference since he did not have enough facts, evidences, and conversation with Mrs. Hudson. As in Mayfied’s text says “We solve problems by asking questions, gathering facts, making inferences from them…” Therefore, in order to make a correct judgment, we need to have more evidences and facts that support the judgment.
Hey Ricky, I like the fact the that you mention even one of the great investigators makes mistakes. This proves that when it comes to drawing inferences anyone can make a mistake no matter who you are. Eventually we are going to make a wrong inference due to our natural instincts and our personal experiences. However, what is important is that we try to correct our assumption when we know we are wrong just as you and Mayfield explained. Furthermore, we should not let that one faulty assumption mislead us to another wrong assumption.
Racquel to Alisha:
Thank you very much for your kind words. I struggled a bit writing my response to the blog,mostly because I was fatigued.I had to finish it the next day. Writing is much easier when you are well rested.
We also use past experience and knowledge to help us make inferences like what Holmes did in with his dilemma. When we infer, its like we are Sherlock Holmes, using limited information to come with a conclusion. Although our inferences won't be as romanticized as his, being able to use this produce a decent educated guess.
in this short story,Homles draws the inferences form evidence by what he see and conscious from his first impression.in his first impression, what he say is the evidence to draw the inferences when he saw the womam. For example, what he say to the woman, Pray draw......you are shivering." is the first impression of what Homles see.And Homles draws inferences from fact by what he observed from woman's expression ,motion, and colthing.He is gathering the information from the observtion .From instance, on page (112), No , but i observe ......left glove ." this shows how he draw inference from fact.Anyway, i think he made a false inference when he draw inferences from evidence, and make a right inference when he draw inference from fact.
To Sin Yee,Dy
I agree with you when you say Mr.Holmes made a false inference. Mr.Holmes did make false inferce when he said that Mrs.Hudson was shivering.We we read the short excerpt, we knew that Mrs.Hudson was fear and terror. So his interence was false. Also, i m approve of what you mentionen form the Mayfield'text.Its meaning is keep checking and against the facts can help us to make the right inference.
In the story, Holmes makes inferences from things he sees. He looked around and made assumptions on what he thought was going on. He used small details to make a guess as to what that person was doing. He used his personal experience and knowledge to guess what was going on. From the fact of there being mud on the ladies shoes he inferenced that she rode on a cart through the mud to the trainstation. The only false inference he makes is about the lady that was shaking holmes figured she was cold, when in reality she was just very frightened.
I totally agree with her opinion. Before we make conclusion, we need to gather our facts from what we see, and choose the right inferences so that we can be able to solve our problems. However, facts can be proved to be false, and sometimes we still make false inferences.
I believe that "inferences can go with wrong even if we have facts in front of us" too. We have to think about the facts we gather in order to let them make sense to us. If we are so eager to get results and rush ourselves to make conclusions, our inferences will easily go wrong. As Mayfield said in the text, "Inferences used with conscious skill lead us to knowledge. When used without conscious awareness, they lead us to confusion and illusion" (110).
To Sin Yee,
I agree with your opinion. Sherlock Holmes made the first inference by looking at the lady's physical characteristics. I also fell into a false inference as he did that the lady was cold. But as the conversation went on, we understand the reason why the lady was shivering.
I agree with you that Holmes draw inferences from his observation and conversations with woman. Because according to the textbook, we can solve quesitons by asking. Often, asking is a good strategy to draw our inferences.
The conclusion that Sherlock Holmes made was drawn by what he saw... He said while drawing inference to Mrs Hudson, the left arm of your jacket spatted with fresh mud, he also said there is no mystery...
He inference by saying that the woman was shavering due to the cold while it was fear.
Holmes made many assumption such as Mrs Hudson came by a train.
Mayfield said we need to ask questions and gather facts to correct false conclusion.
Hey Racquel
i read your text and really like how you recit the book, and saw some similar false inference that you quoted out, for example He,Holmes assumed that the woman was shivering because she was cold while it was fear... and many more.
we should not forget that inference can lead to mistake and false conclusion.
Hey Devonte, I think you're right when you said that we "draw inferences from facts with things that are very obvious to make the situation seem correct." We make these assumptions because we are used to seeing something we've witnessed before, which makes it obvious. If we make an inference and it turns out to be wrong, we are shocked. The situation is unfamiliar to us because we've never experienced it in the past. For example, Holmes noticed that the woman was shivering because that's what he was used to seeing. He might have never seen anyone shiver when they were in fear, so it doesn't fit the situation like you said.
Conan Doyle’s fictions are famous for their inferences. In the real world, fact is hidden under the complexity. Correct inferences are very difficult to be made because evidences lead to dozens of possibilities. In the fiction, Conan let the biggest possibility became the only fact. Besides, Conan combined a great deal of evidences and made his inferences looked like the only fact. Holmes’ inferences were brilliant and fun. But they were unreal. In the fictions, Holmes never drew false inferences.
Homles draw inferences by evidence from observation. He had a great skill of observability. He observe carefully before he make judgment. For instance, he realized the fact that the second half of the ticket was in her glove, so she must came from the train. He used the other half of the return ticket as his support evidence. However, he sometimes make a false inference. The woman was shivering, so obviously he thought that she was cold. However, she wasn't shivering because she was cold, she was actually scared. Therefore, inferences could be wrong at times. It is related to Mayfields text about how inferences can go right and wrong.
Hi Sin Yee,
I like the quote that you raised up. “As we make inferences, we have to keep checking them against our facts; otherwise we can build one faulty inference on top of another”. Especially when we're making inferences, it is better for us to go through couple times carefully to make sure it does not against our fact, just so we wouldn't make a mistake easily.
It Based on his assumptions from what he is looking at. He is inferring Mrs. Hudson being cold and it happens to be a false inference. This being because she states that shivers when she is feeling cold. This implies that inference can come up false at times based on Mayfield.
Anna you are right on point about the inferences from the evidence making assumptions. This shoes that inferring can very well be false sometimes.
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